Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,620$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{62,834.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(62,834.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,879$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,652.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,652.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $46,949$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $313,392$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{292,341.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(292,341.2\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46,611$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,441.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(44,441.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $265,318$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $322,980$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(9.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254,546.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(254,546.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,576$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(103.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,910.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(27,910.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $144,028$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $250,825$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(9.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239,423.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(239,423.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,209$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,453.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(34,453.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,368$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $82,972$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(8.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,246.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.6)}}\) (asimptote \(90,246.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,766$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,604.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,604.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $77,206$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $239,349$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(7.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{202,819.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(202,819.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,327$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,480.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,480.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $126,051$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,058$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,940.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(50,940.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,178$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,088.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,088.6\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $53,643$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,768$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(9.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,472.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(25,472.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,772$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(582 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,721.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,721.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,632$ on 2020-08-10