Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $74,620$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{62,834.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(62,834.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,879$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,652.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,652.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46,949$ on 2020-08-10

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $313,392$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{292,341.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(292,341.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46,611$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,441.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(44,441.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $265,318$ on 2020-08-10

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $322,980$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(9.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254,546.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(254,546.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,576$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(103.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,910.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(27,910.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $144,028$ on 2020-08-10

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $250,825$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(9.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239,423.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(239,423.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,209$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,453.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(34,453.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,368$ on 2020-08-10

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $82,972$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(8.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,246.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.6)}}\) (asimptote \(90,246.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,766$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,604.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,604.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $77,206$ on 2020-08-10

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $239,349$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(7.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{202,819.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(202,819.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,327$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,480.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,480.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $126,051$ on 2020-08-10

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,058$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,940.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(50,940.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,178$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,088.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,088.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $53,643$ on 2020-08-10

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,768$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(9.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,472.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(25,472.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,772$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(582 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,721.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,721.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,632$ on 2020-08-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Belarus recovered 87%
Austria recovered 85%
Slovenia recovered 85%
Croatia recovered 53%
Portugal recovered 48%
Montenegro recovered 46%
Armenia recovered 42%
Russia recovered 26%

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,947$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,809.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 72.3)}}\) (asimptote \(67,809.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $589$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(76.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{651.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 79.0)}}\) (asimptote \(651.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,367$ on 2020-08-10

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,106$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(7.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(98.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,965.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(17,965.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $723$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(298 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{688.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(688.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,373$ on 2020-08-10

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,255$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(718 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,796.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,796.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $128$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(48 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(111.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $167$ on 2020-08-10

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,649$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(614 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.6\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $158$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(37.5 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(124.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $585$ on 2020-08-10